The European Union is approaching the limit of its population growth and is set to enter a sustained population decline for the remainder of the century, according to a report published Tuesday by the European Commission.
According to the Joint Research Centre (JRC), an agency of the Commission, the bloc currently has 450.6 million inhabitants and will reach its peak in 2029 at 453.3 million, before beginning a decline that will continue thereafter.
By 2050 the number is projected to fall to 445 million and by the end of the century to 398.8 million, a level comparable to the second half of the 1970s.
This contraction, equivalent to an 11.7% drop from the projected peak, will occur alongside an apparently contradictory development: Europeans are living longer than ever. Life expectancy averaged 81.5 years in 2024 — 84.1 for women and 78.9 for men — and the report projects it will exceed 90 and 86 years respectively by 2100. A child born in the EU in 2023 can expect 75.3 years without serious illness.
This increased longevity is transforming the age structure of the bloc. Today, 1 in 5 Europeans is 65 or older; by 2050 that proportion will be 1 in 3. In absolute terms, those needing care will rise from 36 million this year to 48 million in 2070, equivalent to 11% of the total population.
That rise in dependency will fall on a shrinking workforce. The 15–64 age group is projected to decline at a rate of 1.2 million people per year between 2025 and 2050, while around 20% of those of working age remain outside the labor market, including eight million young people who are not in education, employment, or training.
The employment gap between women and men remains at 10 percentage points. Still, participation among older workers has increased: the share of employees aged 55 to 64 rose by 13.5 percentage points for women and by 12.2 for men over the last decade.
In this context, the European Commission acknowledges that migration “plays an increasingly important role” in partially offsetting the decline in the active population, though it warns that migration alone cannot reverse the trend. Attracting skilled migrants, along with training and reskilling programs for those already residing in the bloc, are among the options considered, as are measures to boost productivity and reduce unemployment.
Aging also creates opportunities in the so-called silver economy, a sector focused on products and services for older adults—with innovations in health and technology—that is expected to see growing demand in the coming decades.
(With information from AFP and DPA)