The European Union is approaching its demographic peak and is expected to enter a sustained population decline for the remainder of the century, according to a report published Tuesday by the European Commission.
According to the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the EU currently has 450.6 million inhabitants and will reach its peak in 2029, at 453.3 million, before beginning a decline that will continue thereafter.
By 2050 the population is projected to fall to 445 million and by the end of the century to 398.8 million, a level comparable to the second half of the 1970s.
That contraction—equivalent to an 11.7% decrease from the projected maximum—occurs alongside longer lifespans. Average life expectancy was 81.5 years in 2024 (84.1 for women and 78.9 for men), and the report projects it will exceed 90 and 86 years respectively by 2100. A child born in the EU in 2023 can expect 75.3 years without serious illness.
Greater longevity is reshaping the bloc’s age structure. Today one in five Europeans is 65 or older; by 2050 that proportion is expected to be one in three. In absolute terms, the number of people requiring care would rise from 36 million this year to 48 million in 2070, roughly 11% of the total population.
That increased dependency will weigh on a shrinking workforce. The 15–64 age group is projected to decline by about 1.2 million people per year between 2025 and 2050, while nearly 20% of those of working age remain outside the labor market, including eight million young people who are neither in education, employment nor training.
The employment gap between women and men remains around 10 percentage points. Still, participation among older workers has risen: the share of employed people aged 55–64 increased by 13.5 percentage points for women and 12.2 points for men over the last decade.
In response, the European Commission acknowledges that immigration “plays an increasingly important role” in partially offsetting the decline in the active population, but warns it cannot reverse the trend on its own. Attracting skilled migrants, offering training and reskilling for current residents, boosting productivity and reducing unemployment are among the measures considered. Aging also creates opportunities in the so-called silver economy—products and services for older adults—with growing demand for health and technology innovations in the coming decades.
(With information from AFP and DPA)