With the 2025-26 NBA regular season entering its final stretch, the MVP race has come down to three truly elite candidates: Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Nikola Jokic. All three have delivered seasons worthy of serious consideration, and in many years, each one would have a legitimate argument to win the award.
But if I had to predict the winner today, I would pick Victor Wembanyama.
That is not a slight to Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been the best scoring guard in basketball on a dominant Oklahoma City team, or to Jokic, who has once again produced one of the most extraordinary all-around offensive seasons the league has ever seen. It is simply a recognition that Wembanyama’s combination of elite production, team success, defensive dominance, and late-season momentum gives him the strongest overall MVP case right now.
The Top Three MVP Candidates
1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Wembanyama has turned the MVP conversation into a true debate because his impact goes far beyond traditional box-score volume. He is averaging 24.7 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game, while leading a Spurs team that has surged to 59-18 and the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference.
Those numbers are impressive on their own, but the context makes them even stronger. Wembanyama is anchoring one of the league’s best teams while providing game-changing value on both ends of the floor. Offensively, he creates matchup problems no defense can comfortably solve. Defensively, he alters entire game plans. That matters in an MVP race where the margins are this small.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander has been brilliant all season and remains a completely credible MVP pick. He is averaging 31.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game for an Oklahoma City team that owns the league’s best record at 61-16.
His case begins with consistency. Night after night, Gilgeous-Alexander delivers efficient, controlled offense and has been the engine of the NBA’s most successful regular-season team. There is tremendous value in being the best player on the best team, and that reality is why he remains so close to the top of this race.
3. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Jokic is having another historic season, averaging 27.7 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 10.8 assists per game for Denver. A center averaging a triple-double is remarkable enough. Doing it for a second straight season places him in rare territory even by his own standards.
From a purely offensive standpoint, Jokic may still be the most impactful player in basketball. He controls pace, creates efficient shots for everyone on the floor, and remains the most versatile offensive hub in the league. The issue for his MVP case is not production. It is team standing. Denver, at 49-28, simply has not matched the regular-season dominance of Oklahoma City or San Antonio.
Why I Think Wembanyama Will Win
The strongest MVP argument this year comes down to total impact, not just offensive excellence or scoring volume. That is where Wembanyama separates himself.
Gilgeous-Alexander has the edge in scoring and has led the team with the best record. Jokic has the most historic all-around offensive stat line. But Wembanyama offers something neither of them quite matches: elite value on both ends of the floor at the same time, on a team that has won at an MVP-worthy level.
His 24.7 points and 11.5 rebounds already put him in superstar territory. Add 3.1 blocks per game, and the picture changes from “great season” to “franchise-defining dominance.” He is not just a productive defender. He is a defense by himself. That kind of impact is difficult to overstate. When voters are comparing players this close, defense becomes a major separator.
That is the key point in Wembanyama’s favor. Gilgeous-Alexander has been phenomenal, but his MVP case is built mostly on elite offense, efficiency, and team success. Jokic’s case is built mostly on historic offensive control and statistical brilliance. Wembanyama combines high-end offensive production with defensive influence that can completely reshape a game.
And unlike many past candidates whose defensive value came with lower team results, Wembanyama’s team success is fully in the MVP range. The Spurs are not a feel-good surprise story anymore. They are one of the league’s top teams. That matters.
Why Wembanyama Deserves It More Than Gilgeous-Alexander
Gilgeous-Alexander’s argument is straightforward and powerful: he scores more, he creates efficiently, and he has led the NBA’s best team. In many seasons, that would be enough to make him the clear favorite.
But this season, Wembanyama closes the gap in team success while providing a much larger defensive edge. Oklahoma City’s record is better, but San Antonio’s record is also elite. The difference between first and second in the West is meaningful, yet it is not so overwhelming that it should erase Wembanyama’s advantage as a rim protector, rebounder, and overall defensive force.
If the question is which player does more to affect every possession on both sides of the ball, Wembanyama has the stronger answer. Gilgeous-Alexander may be the more polished offensive closer right now, but Wembanyama influences the game in more dimensions.
Why Wembanyama Deserves It More Than Joki?
Jokic has the most historically unusual stat line of the three candidates, and no serious MVP discussion can dismiss a center averaging a triple-double. He remains one of the most unique players the league has ever seen.
However, MVP is rarely awarded in a vacuum. Team performance matters, and Denver’s record lags behind both Oklahoma City and San Antonio. When one candidate is producing at a superstar level on a 59-win team and another is doing the same on a team outside the top two in its conference, that difference becomes difficult to ignore.
Wembanyama also has the far stronger defensive case. Jokic orchestrates offense at a historically high level, but Wembanyama can control an entire game defensively in a way almost no player in the league can. That two-way edge gives Wembanyama the cleaner overall MVP profile.
Final Prediction
This has been one of the deepest MVP races in recent memory. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the best player-on-the-best-team argument. Nikola Joki? has the most statistically historic offensive season. But Victor Wembanyama has the most complete case.
He has produced star-level offense, elite rebounding, dominant rim protection, and top-tier team success. He has not just been spectacular. He has been the kind of player who changes both ends of the floor every single night.
My prediction: Victor Wembanyama wins the 2025-26 NBA MVP.
In a race this close, the deciding factor should be total value. And no candidate has provided more complete value this season than Wembanyama.
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